The Turkish “trap” for foreigners has slammed shut, but will the goals be achieved? The situation in Antalya with real estate and residence permit

Hello friends. Every day I receive more and more questions from people who have suffered because of the situation with areas closed to foreigners in Antalya and Alanya, which I am simply not able to answer at the moment, since the situation is now very confusing and no one is completely sure can't say.

There are requests from realtors to, it seems, officials in the migration service, and there are, it seems, specific answers, but so far everything is only in words…

Today I want to speculate a little about the purpose of these restrictions and the reality of achieving them.

Summary of what happened

For those who are not in the know, let me remind you that from July 1, 2022, new lists of “closed” areas were published in Turkey, where the proportion of permanently residing foreign citizens exceeded 25% of the total population and, accordingly, to obtain a residence permit for renting an apartment there will no longer work.

In Antalya, in particular, this list includes the most popular neighborhoods among Russians: Liman, Khurma and Sarisu.

How did people get hurt?

And here here, practically, how many people, so many different situations.

Someone paid their rent in full a year in advance, paid a commission to a realtor, and now they cannot get a residence permit.

Someone has already moved all the things from Russia to Antalya to “settle near relatives”, but can't do it.

Someone bought an apartment in a “closed” area, but now he cannot register in it and get a residence permit.

Someone translated all the savings from Russia to Turkey to buy an apartment, and now he doesn’t know how to withdraw them …

What wanted to achieve?

This whole initiative to limit the number of foreigners in different microdistricts of Turkey is aimed at:

Firstly, to prevent the formation of large diasporas that in the future they will be able to “dictate their own rules”.

And, secondly, to contain the growth in real estate prices (both for rent and and for sale), which was indeed largely due to the large influx of foreign citizens to Turkey.

Will these goals be met?

The first one is obviously YES. But prices are more complicated.

1. Rent. Now foreigners living in “closed” areas have the right to renew their old lease agreements and, accordingly, residence permits. The address of residence can only be changed within the district, or you can move to any of the “open” districts. Nobody wants to move from Liman, for example, to Kepez. Therefore, people will hold on to their old contracts for as long as possible and by any means. On any terms. For better or for worse. And the locals understand this. Therefore, no price reduction should be expected. Any cheap apartment will be immediately rented. Competition for good real estate will only increase. Due to what is there to fall rent? On the contrary, apartment owners, knowing that “foreigners are trapped” will try to raise the price.

2. Purchase. Now, according to the verbal statements of representatives of the Antalya migration service, foreigners will not be able to buy apartments in “closed” areas in the near future and issue a residence permit on this basis. It seems like this is a signal that the value of real estate should fall, since there will be no applicants for it except for the local population. But, firstly, everyone knows that everything is changing very quickly in Turkey and there is a high probability that after some time all these restrictions for foreigners will be lifted. Secondly, the owners of an apartment whose real estate was recently estimated, for example, at $100,000, simply psychologically will not be able to sell it much cheaper now (especially considering the above and wild inflation in Turkey). And thirdly, in any case, the local population does not have that kind of money to greatly reduce the cost of apartments in Antalya with great demand. This is just unreal. So, most likely, real estate prices in Turkey will just freeze for a while, but they will definitely not fall.

Closer to September, the situation should become more or less clear, so we will observe. Sea.

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